Sunday, June 7, 2009

0 Treasury bull bubble ready to burst

This week the Treasury is set to auction $101 billion worth of new debt. I'm not even sure why they are referring to these events that involve the Fed buying US debt as a "Treasury auction"... it would be the equivalent of me listing a product on ebay, borrowing money from a bank at 0% interest, bidding up my own product, and then buying it myself with the bank's money and promising the bank I'll repay them when I re-sell my product again sometime in the future.

There's not even any logical sense in this sham the Fed and Treasury are running and it's going to end up backfiring on them because this type of manipulation will burst the bull bubble in Treasuries, it will send the yield on the 10-year far above the 3.00% level and that will put downside pressure on mortgage lending rates making it even harder for potential homeowners to borrow which will even further cap home prices and prevent them from rising. Yeah, that sounds like a great plan to me... and then we have the whole issue for how this sham floods the money-supply which I don't even have time to get in to right now.

In my view, the days of the great Treasury bull run should be officially over. Treasury prices should be starting their march back down while yields should be starting their march back up. Treasury supply should far exceed demand and all of those factors are nothing but bearish for Treasuries. But, with $101 billion worth of fresh US debt flooding the markets this week, I believe equities will be one of the beneficiaries...
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